Coronavirus COVID-19: Optimism Vs History

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kito
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Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 7:25 am

Coronavirus COVID-19: Optimism Vs History

Post by kito » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:00 am

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic has made me look at the world differently. No one alive today has ever witnessed the kind of world-wide shutdown we are seeing now. Something like this has certainly not happened at any time in the past 1,000 years.

How will the world be like in the near future? I will consider two possible outcomes.

1. Optimistic View: Deaths From Coronavirus < 1 Million Globally in the Next 6 Months

If some effective, quick-acting anti-COVID-19 medicine or vaccine is discovered soon, such that the total deaths from Coronavirus are less than 1 million globally in the next 6 months, then the panic will end, most people will not see any reason to hoard goods, and life will slowly return to ‘normal’.

However, I don’t see countries suddenly opening their borders to everyone. Governments around the world have seen how difficult it is to keep foreigners out, if you initially allowed them to come and go as they wish.

Governments will concentrate on reviving their own countries’ economies. There will be rise in Nationalism, as opposed to Globalism.

Therefore, although economies around the world will start recovering, some countries - especially those that were already poor before the Coronavirus Pandemic - will recover at a much slower pace.

I would expect the world to become more peaceful than it was before the onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

2. Pessimistic View: Deaths From Coronavirus > 10 Million Globally in the Next 6 Months

If some effective, quick-acting anti-COVID-19 medicine or vaccine is NOT discovered soon, such that the total deaths from Coronavirus are MORE than 10 million globally in the next 6 months, there will be anarchy in the world.

The effect of having 10 million COVID-19 deaths, and no hope for cure or vaccine in sight, is equivalent to 1 Billion people dying from AIDS, and there being no cure. There will be total panic all round.

In the case of COVID-19, who will look after hardcore criminals in jail? At that time, even basic foodstuffs like bread and milk will not be available in supermarkets (that is, if there will be open supermarkets).

With limited medical supplies governments will prefer to rescue younger people and leave older people to survive on their own. People over 70 years will be banned from hospitals. Then after the over 70s die, the over 60s will be banned from hospitals…Then every one for himself.

This possibility has made me think about past civilisations like Mesopotamia and Ancient Egypt. How can there be people who can build a building almost 150 Metres tall in 2560 BC, yet it took 3,800 years to repeat that feat?

It is not logical at all. Unless something very major happened, that decimated a big percentage of the population of ancient Egypt.
The Great Pyramid of Giza (also known as the Pyramid of Khufu or the Pyramid of Cheops) was built as a tomb over a 10 to 20-year period concluding around 2560 BC. Initially standing at 146.5 metres (481 feet), the Great Pyramid was the tallest man-made structure in the world for more than 3,800 years until Lincoln Cathedral was finished in 1311 AD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pyramid_of_Giza
Coronavirus Apocalypse

While I am very optimistic, and I strongly believe that option 1 above will prevail, suppose for a moment that option 2 happened. That would explain how civilisations died in the past, and why it took thousands of years for another civilisation to develop.

If option 2 above happened, health systems, governments around the world would collapse. What would follow, on top of COVID-19 deaths, would be global chaos, anarchy and wars.

Suppose that only 10 million human beings remain in the whole world by 2030. How would the world look like?

These 10 million people would be scattered all over the world. Therefore, the chance of having a line of people/companies capable of producing TVs, Phones, Computers, Cars…would be ZERO.

What is the probability that among these 10 million people you have some who can mine minerals, some that can refine minerals, some who can create all the parts needed to make TVs, Phones, Computers, Cars…What about law and order, logistics…the cogs that keep world economy running would have collapsed.

What about people who can make/repair medical equipment? Or manufacture medicines…

And you also need farmers, drivers, ship captains, airplane pilots, weathermen…

It would be impossible to keep major systems like power plants running.

Imagine that among these 10 million people who survive the COVID-19 Apocalypse, is the best surgeon in the world. How good a doctor would he be without the medical support staff to help him?

How would this great surgeon perform complex surgeries without any credible patient history data, crucial blood tests, data from X-rays, MRIs…?

Let us assume this top surgeon has young children, and he wants to teach them medicine so they can help the next generation. Even if his children are naturally much brighter than their dad, there is no way they can even come near his ability as a surgeon - because the doctor will not have the tools to teach them to become great surgeons.

Therefore, in each generation, the quality of doctors will become lower. The quality of engineers will become lower with each generation.

By 10th generation from the COVID-19 Apocalypse, the most skilled surgeon in the world would only know how to cut a limb with a saw, without any anaesthesia. 20 generations from the Coronavirus Apocalypse, human beings would be mainly HUNTERS and GATHERERS.

The humans alive in the year 4,000 AD will be seeing ruins of big cities like New York and London, and look at the hunters and gatherers who call New York and London home, and they will say, there is no way the ancestors of these primitive people had anything to do with building of the cities.

What wiped out huge populations during the days of these civilisations: Ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, Ancient China…?

Is it possible that there once existed, on this earth, human populations much more advanced than the present-day humans?
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus…At this time, there are no specific vaccines or treatments for COVID-19. However, there are many ongoing clinical trials evaluating potential treatments. WHO will continue to provide updated information as soon as clinical findings become available.
https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1

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